Romanian PM Bolojan Out by Year-End: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the chance that Ilie Bolojan is no longer Romania’s prime minister by December 31 at 97.0% — a level traders treat as near-certain. The contract, which resolves the moment any departure is confirmed, sits near the top of its recent range.
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?
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| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? | 97.0% | -0.2 |
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by July 31? | 8.0% | -8.5 |
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by May 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? | 0.0% | — |
The year-end contract is near-certain to trigger, while the remaining expiry dates are long shots, with the July 31 contract trading at a far lower level.
Context
The headline contract has moved within a range of over the period and currently changes hands at 97.0%. Resolution turns on a simple condition: a Yes payout is triggered if Bolojan ceases to hold the prime minister’s office for any stretch between the market’s creation and the December 31 end date. An announced resignation or removal is enough — the market resolves immediately to Yes upon credible reports of such an announcement, regardless of when the departure formally takes effect. The official resolution source is public information from Bolojan or the Romanian government, though a consensus of reliable news reporting may also be used if official channels are silent. The factors that would move the probability are mechanical, not predictive. The contract has a hard deadline of Dec 31, 2026; the closer the date gets without a departure, the lower the odds would be expected to drift, all else equal. Any verified report of a resignation, no-confidence vote, or cabinet reshuffle that removes Bolojan from the post would settle the market instantly. The reliance on official confirmation means that rumors or unverified leaks alone do not resolve it.
FAQ
What exactly triggers a Yes resolution?
The market resolves to Yes if Ilie Bolojan ceases to be prime minister for any period of time — even a single day — between the market’s creation and the specified end date. Resignation, dismissal, temporary loss of office: all count, provided the event is confirmed by official sources or a consensus of credible reporting.
What happens if a resignation is announced but delayed?
An announcement of Bolojan’s exit before the market’s end date settles the contract immediately to Yes. The effective date of the departure does not matter; as soon as credible reports confirm the announcement, the market resolves, even if he remains in office for weeks afterward.
Who determines the official resolution?
Primary resolution relies on official information from Ilie Bolojan and the Romanian government. If official statements are absent, a consensus of credible journalism can serve as the resolution source.
Does the market distinguish between a short absence and a permanent departure?
No. The condition is simply that Bolojan ceases to be prime minister for any period. A temporary stand-in while he is abroad or a brief hospitalisation that triggers an acting replacement would meet the criteria, as long as it is confirmed by the resolution source.
What is the difference between the December and July contracts?
The contracts differ only in their end date: one runs to July 31, the other to December 31. The longer window gives more time for a departure to occur, which explains why the year-end contract commands a much higher price.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice