Sep 21, 2026
Probability rose from 79.8% to 82.0% — a 2.2-point move over the past day.
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance that Ilie Bolojan ceases to be Prime Minister by December 31 at 85.3%, making it strongly favored that he leaves office this year.
85.3%+3.3 pts 24h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?
Updated · Volume $852.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? | 85.3% | +3.3 |
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by September 30? | 2.6% | +0.1 |
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by May 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline outcome that Bolojan leaves office dominates the market; the remaining scenarios are all long shots.
Context
Sep 20, 2026
Probability fell from 85.9% to 78.1% — a 7.8-point move over the past day.
Sep 18, 2026
Probability rose from 79.8% to 83.0% — a 3.1-point move over the past day.
Sep 16, 2026
Probability rose from 77.9% to 86.0% — a 8.1-point move over the past day.
Sep 15, 2026
Probability fell from 93.0% to 77.9% — a 15.1-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 10, 2026
Probability fell from 95.9% to 89.3% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 9, 2026
Probability fell from 95.9% to 91.0% — a 4.9-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability rose from 78.3% to 88.0% — a 9.7-point move over the past day.
Aug 14, 2026
Probability rose from 73.2% to 82.1% — a 8.9-point move over the past day.
Aug 14, 2026
Probability rose from 71.3% to 85.5% — a 14.3-point move over the past day.
The contract has traded between 71.8% and 95.9% since launch. It moved +3.3 pts in the past day Currently at 85.3%, the price indicates a prevailing view that Bolojan will not remain Prime Minister through year-end. The market resolves to Yes if Ilie Bolojan ceases to be Prime Minister for any period between the market’s creation and December 31. An announced resignation or removal before that date triggers immediate resolution to Yes, even if the departure takes effect later. Resolution is based on official statements from Bolojan or the Romanian government; a consensus of credible reporting can also serve as the source. The most direct drivers of the probability are any formal announcement of resignation or removal, as well as signals from official channels. The market’s end date is Jan 1, 2027. Any development verified by the resolution source can move the number.
FAQ
What exactly triggers a Yes resolution?
The market resolves to Yes if Ilie Bolojan ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time, even a temporary removal, between market creation and December 31.
When does the market resolve if a resignation is announced?
An announcement of resignation or removal before the end date resolves the market to Yes immediately, regardless of when the resignation takes effect.
What sources determine the outcome?
Official information from Ilie Bolojan or the government of Romania, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Does the market consider a temporary absence as ceasing to be PM?
Yes, any period of cessation, however brief, qualifies.
What happens if Bolojan remains Prime Minister through December 31?
The market resolves to No, provided he has not ceased to be PM at any point during the period.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice