Will the SAVE Act Become Law? Market Odds & Probability
Markets see the SAVE Act's passage as unlikely, pricing it at 10.0%. The forecast hinges on whether Congress will enact a requirement for documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote.
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $552.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? | 10.0% | +0.5 |
| SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| SAVE Act becomes law by May 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| SAVE Act becomes law by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline outcome—enactment by the deadline—trades at an unlikely level, while the remaining scenarios are priced at negligible levels.
Context
The market’s estimate stands at 10.0%, after trading between 9.0% and 14.0%. The day’s change was +0.5 pts. For a 'Yes' resolution, any bill requiring documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration must pass both chambers of Congress and be signed into law—or be otherwise enacted—by Apr 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no such bill is enacted by that deadline, the market resolves to 'No'. The hard cutoff of Apr 30, 2026 means that any legislative progress or setback before that date can shift the probability. The market relies on official U.S. government information, or in its absence, a consensus of credible reporting, to determine the outcome.
FAQ
What qualifies as a 'Yes' resolution?
A 'Yes' occurs if any bill, measure, or resolution requiring proof of U.S. citizenship for voter registration in federal elections is passed by both chambers of Congress and signed into law, or otherwise enacted, by the deadline.
Does the bill have to be named the SAVE Act?
No. Examples from the market description include H.R. 22 (the SAVE Act) and H.R. 7296 (the SAVE America Act), but any legislation with the citizenship requirement qualifies.
What if a voting bill passes without the citizenship provision?
That would resolve as 'No'. The legislation must explicitly mandate proof of citizenship for registration.
How is the outcome verified?
Primarily through official U.S. government information. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used as a resolution source.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice