H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the SAVE Act’s enactment at 6.5%, making it unlikely. The market resolves Yes only if the bill clears Congress and is signed by the president before Jan 1, 2027.
Updated · Volume $191.6K
The Yes contract for enactment is the primary focus of trading, with the No contract absorbing all other possibilities.
Context
The contract currently trades at 6.5%. A Yes resolution requires that the bill pass both chambers of Congress and be signed into law by the president before Jan 1, 2027. The primary sources for verification are Congress.gov’s legislation tracker and official U.S. government information; credible reporting may also be used. The probability will shift with news of progress toward the two legislative votes and the signature. The absolute cutoff is Jan 1, 2027; if the bill has not been enacted by then, the market settles to No. Confirmation of the outcome will depend principally on the official congressional tracker.
FAQ
What does this market track?
It tracks whether H.R. 22, the SAVE Act, is passed by both the House and Senate and signed into law by the president before the resolution deadline.
What counts as a Yes resolution?
The market resolves Yes only if the bill is enacted into law on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Even if the bill passes both chambers, it must be signed by the president before the cutoff.
What happens if the bill is signed after the deadline?
If the bill is signed after the deadline, the market resolves to No, because the condition requires enactment by that time.
How is the outcome verified?
The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker, backed by other official U.S. government information or consensus credible reporting.
Do amendments or procedural steps affect resolution?
Only final passage and signature matter; the market does not track individual amendments or votes.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice