SC-01 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the Republican Party at 69.5% to win the SC-01 House seat in the 2026 midterms, data updated 15 min ago.
Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat?
Updated · Volume $55.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat? | 69.5% | +0.5 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat? | 29.5% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the SC-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the SC-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the SC-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the SC-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the SC-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the SC-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican Party is the favored outcome to hold the seat, while the Democratic Party holds a minority chance; the remaining possibilities are all long shots.
Context
Sitting at 69.5%, the contract has traded over its lifetime. Resolution turns on the party affiliation of the winning candidate, as listed on the ballot or otherwise identifiable at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If the victor lacks a major-party affiliation, the market looks to the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus. Settlement follows a consensus of credible reporting; the Federal Election Commission’s official tally serves as the backstop for any disputes. The election is scheduled for Nov 3, 2026. Price swings come from developments that alter the perceived odds of a Republican victory. The contractual trigger is the election on Nov 3, 2026; before then, any news—from candidate announcements to polling data—can reshape expectations.
FAQ
How is the winner's party determined?
The market looks at the party affiliation listed on the winning candidate’s ballot line. If no party is listed, it uses the party with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus.
What happens if there is a dispute over the result?
The market first relies on a consensus of credible reporting. If any ambiguity remains, it resolves based on the official results published by the Federal Election Commission.
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves after the 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for Nov 3, 2026, once the winner of the SC-01 House seat is conclusively determined.
What if a third-party or independent candidate wins?
If the winner is a third-party or independent candidate, the market determines their party based on any existing affiliation or their stated intent to caucus with a major party. If no such intent is known, the outcome would fall outside the major-party options covered by this market.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice