SC-02 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets assign a 91.5% chance to the Republican Party retaining South Carolina's 2nd congressional district in the Nov 3, 2026 midterms, a strongly favored outlook.
Will B win the SC-02 House seat?
Updated · Volume $39.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the SC-02 House seat? | 91.5% | +2.0 |
| Will another party win the SC-02 House seat? | 50.5% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the SC-02 House seat? | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the SC-02 House seat? | 49.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the SC-02 House seat? | 6.2% | -3.3 |
| Will D win the SC-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the SC-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the SC-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Beyond the Republican candidate's strong position in the main market, the alternative scenarios trade at sharply different levels. The 'another party' contract is close to a coin flip at 50.5%, while the Democratic candidate is an unlikely at 6.2%. Meanwhile, the outcomes for candidates A and B are each close to a coin flip and close to a coin flip, priced at 50.0% and 49.5% respectively.
Context
The headline contract on the SC-02 House race reflects a strongly favored expectation that the Republican candidate will prevail. With a current price of 91.5%, the market signals confidence in a district that has historically favored the GOP. Trading volume sits at $39.9K, and
The resolution hinges on which party affiliation is ascribed to the winning candidate. Under the contract's rules, that determination comes from the party listed on the ballot, or—if no affiliation appears—the party with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus. Once the 2026 midterm results are called, the market will settle based on a consensus of credible reporting. If the picture is ambiguous, the official Federal Election Commission tally serves as the backstop. While the probability places the GOP firmly in the driver's seat, the election is still over a year away. Candidate fields, fundraising, and shifting national winds could all change the calculus. For now, though, traders see little reason to doubt a Republican hold. The spread between the high and low prices reveals a market that has remained broadly convinced of that outcome, even as new information trickles in.
FAQ
What does the SC-02 House election market measure?
This market tracks the probability that the Republican Party candidate wins South Carolina's 2nd congressional district in the 2026 U.S. House elections.
How is a candidate's party determined for this market?
The market uses the party listed on the ballot. If a candidate lacks a ballot-listed party, it looks at which party they most recently expressed an intent to caucus with, according to the resolution rules.
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves once a winner is conclusively called after the midterm elections on Nov 3, 2026. It may settle earlier if there is a consensus of credible reporting, or later if official FEC results are needed.
What sources are used to confirm the outcome?
The market relies on a consensus of credible reporting. If the reporting is ambiguous, it defaults to the official results published by the Federal Election Commission.
Can the market resolve in favor of a third party?
Yes, if a candidate from another party wins, the market will resolve according to the rules. Separate markets also trade on the probability of an 'another party' victory.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice