SC-03 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give the Republican Party a 95.0% chance of holding South Carolina's 3rd congressional district, making it near-certain to stay red.
Will the Republican Party win the SC-03 House seat?
Updated · Volume $45.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the SC-03 House seat? | 95.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the SC-03 House seat? | 4.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the SC-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the SC-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the SC-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the SC-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the SC-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the SC-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican win is the dominant scenario, while all other outcomes are priced as remote possibilities.
Context
The headline probability currently stands at 95.0%. Over the last day, the market shifted 0.0 pts; The line has remained consistently high, reflecting steady market confidence in a Republican victory. This market resolves based on the party of the winning candidate in the 2026 midterm elections for South Carolina's 3rd congressional district. The election takes place on Nov 4, 2026. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation; if no party is listed, it is based on the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus. The outcome is settled by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the ultimate arbiter in case of ambiguity. The market's resolution is tied to the November 2026 election (Nov 4, 2026). Until then, shifts in polling, candidate announcements, or district-level political developments could alter the probability. The final number will be determined by credible news consensus and, if necessary, the FEC's official results.
FAQ
How is the winning candidate's party identified?
The party is taken from the ballot listing; if no party is listed, the candidate is assigned the party with which they most recently stated an intent to caucus.
What if the election outcome is disputed?
The market looks to a consensus of credible reporting. If that is unclear, it falls back to the official results published by the Federal Election Commission.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves after the 2026 midterm elections, which are scheduled for November 3, 2026, once the winner's party is confirmed.
What about third-party or independent candidates?
Independents are assigned a party based on their caucus intent, as stated above. Any candidate not aligning with the Democratic or Republican parties will be treated similarly.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice