SC-04 House Election Winner: Current Probability
Markets price the Republican Party at 92.5% to retain South Carolina's 4th congressional district when voters go to the polls on November 3, 2026 — strongly favored.
Will the Republican Party win the SC-04 House seat?
Updated · Volume $43.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the SC-04 House seat? | 92.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the SC-04 House seat? | 6.5% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the SC-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the SC-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the SC-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the SC-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the SC-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the SC-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican Party is the strong favourite, while all other scenarios remain distant possibilities.
Context
The contract has spent most of the observable period at elevated levels, with the current price of 92.5% sitting near the top of its range. The 24-hour change was 0.0 pts;
The market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 seat in the 2026 midterm elections. A candidate’s party is determined first by their ballot-listed affiliation. If no party is listed, the market uses the party the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus with at the time the House elections are conclusively called. Settlement is based on a consensus of credible reporting. Should that consensus be ambiguous, the official results from the Federal Election Commission serve as the final authority. The election is set for Nov 4, 2026. Until then, any formal change that alters the field—such as a candidate dropping out or failing to qualify—could move the price. Discrepancies between early media calls and the subsequent FEC tally would also be material, as the contract ultimately rests on the consensus of reporting or the official count.
FAQ
How is a candidate’s party determined for this market?
A candidate’s party is taken from their ballot-listed affiliation. If no party appears on the ballot, the market uses the party with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus at the time all House elections are conclusively called.
What sources are used to decide the outcome?
The market relies on a consensus of credible reporting. If that consensus is unclear, it falls back to the official results published by the Federal Election Commission.
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves after the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026, once the result is clear according to the resolution sources.
What happens if no candidate has a clear party affiliation?
If a candidate’s affiliation is ambiguous, the market defers to the party they expressed an intent to caucus with at the time the election is called. If that also yields no answer, the resolution would depend on the consensus reporting or FEC determination assuming they still fall into a party category.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice