Jul 21, 2026
Probability fell from 5.0% to 2.1% — a 2.9-point move over the past day.
Rocha Moya Extradition: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31 at 26.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $354.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31? | 26.0% | -5.5 |
| Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by May 15? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Context
Jul 21, 2026
Probability fell from 7.5% to 4.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 10.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 10.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice