Jul 26, 2026
Probability rose from 94.3% to 97.3% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
South Dakota Governor GOP Primary: Larry Rhoden Prevails
The market on the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican Primary concluded with Larry Rhoden as the near-certain winner, priced at 100.0%.
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary electionEvent concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $202.3K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Jon Hansen win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Dusty Johnson win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will another candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? | 0.0% | — |
Larry Rhoden secured the nomination, and the other outcomes tracked by the market did not materialise.
Context
Jul 24, 2026
Probability rose from 94.7% to 96.0% — a 1.4-point move over the past day.
Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 94.7% to 96.3% — a 1.6-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability fell from 95.0% to 93.9% — a 1.1-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 59.9% to 87.5% — a 27.7-point move over the past day.
The market on the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican Primary concluded with Larry Rhoden emerging as the winner. He was near-certain throughout the campaign, and his contract settled at 100.0%. The contract had been clear from early on that Rhoden was the overwhelming favourite, and his victory merely formalised what the market had long anticipated. Trading volume on the market reached $202.3K. None of the other potential candidates ever attracted significant market interest. The market resolved according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of South Dakota, which took place on June 2, 2026. Resolution was based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. The resolution source was the first official announcement of the results from the South Dakota Republican Party, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting could have sufficed. As Larry Rhoden received the party's nomination, the market settled in his favour.
FAQ
What event did this market cover?
It covered the winner of the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial primary.
How was the outcome determined?
The market resolved to the candidate who won the primary, based on an official party announcement or overwhelming credible reporting. Larry Rhoden’s victory settled the market in his favour.
When did the market resolve?
The market resolved after the primary on June 2, 2026, once the winner was officially declared.
Could the market have resolved to ‘Other’?
Yes. If no primary had taken place, the market would have settled to ‘Other’. Since the primary occurred, it resolved to the actual winner.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice