Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election at 97.9%.
97.9%-1.2 pts 24h
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Updated · Volume $1.5M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 97.9% | -1.2 |
| Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.8% | -0.1 |
| Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.4% | +0.4 |
| Will the Left Party (V) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will the Green Party (MP) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will the Centre Party (C) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will the Liberals (L) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Party P win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party W win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party Z win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party V win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party T win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party Y win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party G win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party Q win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party R win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party E win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party H win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party F win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party L win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party N win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Other win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party S win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party U win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party M win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party A win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party D win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party B win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party I win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party K win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party J win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party O win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party X win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party C win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 99.8% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 36 tracked outcomes and $1.5M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election, is priced at 97.9%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice