Tallahassee Mayoral Election Winner: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will Other win the Tallahassee mayoral election at 50.0%.

50.0%0.0 pts 24h

Will Other win the Tallahassee mayoral election?

Updated · Volume $142.8K

48%49%51%52%Aug 22Aug 30Sep 6Sep 14Sep 21
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Other win the Tallahassee mayoral election?50.0%0.0
Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election?47.4%+0.4
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?45.5%0.0
Will Daryl Parks win the Tallahassee mayoral election?1.1%-5.5
Will Al Lawson win the Tallahassee mayoral election?0.5%0.0
Will Michael Foust win the Tallahassee mayoral election?0.1%0.0

Context

Sep 20, 2026

Probability rose from 45.1% to 57.6% — a 12.4-point move over the past day.

Sep 13, 2026

Probability rose from 39.1% to 59.6% — a 20.4-point move over the past day.

Sep 7, 2026

Probability rose from 38.6% to 57.8% — a 19.1-point move over the past day.

Sep 6, 2026

Probability rose from 38.8% to 61.1% — a 22.3-point move over the past day.

Sep 5, 2026

Probability rose from 36.2% to 51.0% — a 14.8-point move over the past day.

Show earlier updates

Aug 29, 2026

Probability rose from 44.1% to 54.5% — a 10.4-point move over the past day.

Aug 27, 2026

Probability rose from 40.2% to 54.0% — a 13.8-point move over the past day.

Aug 27, 2026

Probability rose from 36.1% to 63.3% — a 27.2-point move over the past day.

Aug 25, 2026

Probability fell from 60.5% to 52.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.

Aug 24, 2026

Probability fell from 60.5% to 55.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 6 tracked outcomes and $142.8K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will Other win the Tallahassee mayoral election, is priced at 50.0%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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