Will Hungary’s President Leave Office Early?

The market’s trajectory has seen the probability move between 44.0% and 91.0% over the tracked period. The line has held steady near its current level for much of the recent window, without sharp swings. Resolution follows a simple rule: the market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point between market creation and Jul 31, 2026, Tamas Sulyok ceases to hold the presidency for any length of time. An announcement of his resignation or removal before the end date triggers an immediate “Yes” resolution, irrespective of when the change takes effect. The market will otherwise resolve to “No”. Several formal conditions could alter the odds. The most straightforward is the approach of the resolution deadline itself, set for Jul 31, 2026, as the window for a relevant event narrows. Any disclosure from the official resolution sources—Sulyok himself or the Hungarian government—would provide a direct signal, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to settle the market. Though no specific scheduled events are named, any formal proceeding or announcement that could lead to a premature end of the president’s term would naturally draw attention.