Sep 21, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 61.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Texas Senate Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give the Republican candidate 62.5% odds of holding the Texas Senate seat, a race that looks the favored outcome as the campaign develops.
62.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Updated · Volume $4.0M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 62.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 37.5% | 0.0 |
| Will a candidate not listed above win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Republicans hold a narrow edge in a race that is otherwise finely balanced; the remaining candidates are all considered long shots.
Context
The market's pricing of a Republican win has moved within a range from 57.5% to 67.5% over the period tracked, currently standing at 62.5%.. The price has hugged the midpoint, reflecting a contest that remains the favored outcome. This market resolves according to the winner of the 2026 Texas Senate election, including any runoffs. A candidate is considered the party's nominee, and independents are treated separately. The resolution depends on the calls from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. Once all three news sources agree on the same winner, the market settles; if they do not, it uses the official certification. The vote takes place on Nov 4, 2026.
FAQ
What triggers the resolution of this market?
The market settles when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If they do not agree, it resolves based on the official certification.
Does this market include runoff elections?
Yes, any runoff that occurs as part of the 2026 Texas Senate election is included in the resolution.
How are independent candidates handled?
Candidates running as independents are not folded into the Democratic or Republican options; they would be separate outcomes if listed.
When will the market likely resolve?
Resolution typically occurs soon after the election, once the three designated news organizations make their calls, or after certification if needed.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice