Sep 6, 2026
Probability rose from 3.8% to 7.9% — a 4.2-point move over the past day.
Tim Walz Charged by 2026: Live Odds & Market
Markets consider it unlikely that Tim Walz will be formally charged by a US jurisdiction before the deadline, pricing the chance at 6.6%. Any federal or state indictment by Mar 31, 2026 would settle the market to “Yes”.
6.6%+0.3 pts 24h
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $520.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? | 6.6% | +0.3 |
| Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The “Yes” outcome, priced at unlikely, dominates the market; other scenarios are remote.
Context
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 3.8% to 7.5% — a 3.8-point move over the past day.
The odds that Governor Walz is charged have moved over time. As of 1 min ago, the probability sits at 6.6%. The contract has traded between 3.0% and 10.4% over its lifespan. In the most recent session, it shifted by +0.3 pts;
For the market to resolve to “Yes”, any federal or state-level jurisdiction of the United States — including Washington, D.C., and any county or municipal subdivision — must formally charge or announce a criminal indictment of Governor Walz by Mar 31, 2026. The primary resolution source is official information from US governmental entities, but a wide consensus of credible reporting can also settle the question. Because the market hinges on a formal legal step by a specific deadline, any official filing, grand jury announcement, or credible report of an impending indictment would sharply shift the probability. Conversely, the expiration of the deadline without an indictment would settle the market to “No”. There are no other scheduled events that trigger a resolution before the cut-off.
FAQ
What counts as a formal charge or indictment?
Formal charging documents or indictments filed by federal or state courts, including counties and municipalities.
Does the charge have to lead to a conviction?
No, the market resolves on the formal charge or indictment announcement — not a conviction.
What is the deadline for this market?
The market will resolve based on whether an indictment is announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Who decides the outcome?
Official information from US government sources is primary; a wide consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Can the market resolve early?
Yes, if a charge or indictment is announced before the deadline, the market will resolve to “Yes” at that time.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice