Tim Walz in Jail by Dec 31? Live Market Odds
Markets give Tim Walz only 1.6% chance of serving any time behind bars by the end of the year, a prospect they view as effectively ruled out.
Tim Walz in jail by December 31?
Updated · Volume $55.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Tim Walz in jail by December 31? | 1.6% | +0.5 |
| Tim Walz in jail by March 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The 'Yes' outcome at 1.6% dominates the market’s attention, while the alternative is considered a long shot.
Context
The contract currently trades at 1.6%. To resolve 'Yes', Tim Walz must actually serve time in a U.S. jail or prison before the deadline—merely being convicted or charged is insufficient. The market relies primarily on official U.S. Government information, though a consensus of credible reporting can also be used. The resolution mechanics themselves define the triggers: a 'Yes' settlement requires official U.S. Government confirmation of incarceration by Jan 1, 2027, and credible reporting can serve as a resolution source. The market’s price reflects its collective view on whether these conditions will be met.
FAQ
What exactly does this market predict?
It predicts whether Tim Walz will serve any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between the market’s creation and the end of December 31.
What counts as 'serving time'?
Any incarceration in a jail or prison qualifies, even a brief stay. House arrest, probation, or being held in custody without being formally committed to a jail or prison does not count.
What happens if he is convicted but appeals and stays free?
The market resolves 'Yes' only if he is actually incarcerated. A conviction without time served behind bars would result in a 'No' resolution.
Who decides if the conditions are met?
The primary source is official information from the U.S. Government. If that is unavailable, the market may rely on a consensus of credible reporting.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice