TN-03 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets give Republicans a 94.5% chance of retaining the TN-03 House seat in 2026, making them strongly favored.
Will the Republican Party win the TN-03 House seat?
Updated · Volume $44.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the TN-03 House seat? | 94.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the TN-03 House seat? | 4.2% | -0.5 |
| Will C win the TN-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the TN-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the TN-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the TN-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the TN-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the TN-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican Party is strongly favored to win. All other possible outcomes are unlikely.
Context
As of 7 min ago, the Republican probability stands at 94.5%. The market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins Tennessee's 3rd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. A candidate's party is the one listed on the ballot; if no party is listed, it defaults to the party with which the candidate last expressed an intent to caucus. The outcome will be determined by a consensus of credible election reporting, or, if news sources disagree, by the official results from the Federal Election Commission. The probability will react to news and polling ahead of the election, with the key date being Nov 3, 2026, when Americans vote. The resolution source—news consensus or FEC—means that any major reporting shift or official certification could adjust the number.
FAQ
How is a candidate's party determined for resolution?
The market uses the ballot-listed party affiliation. If a candidate does not have one, it falls back to the party they last stated they would caucus with in the House.
What happens if election results are disputed?
The market follows a consensus of credible news sources. If no consensus emerges, it relies on the official results published by the Federal Election Commission.
When does the election take place?
The 2026 U.S. midterm elections are on November 3, 2026.
Does the market consider independent or third-party candidates?
Yes, but their party is determined by the same criteria: ballot listing or caucus intent. However, such outcomes are currently priced as negligible.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice