Aug 15, 2026
Probability fell from 95.0% to 86.0% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
TN-05 House Election Winner Odds & Forecast
Prediction markets price the Republican Party's chances at 88.0%, making it strongly favored to hold the TN-05 House seat in 2026. Resolution hinges on the Nov 4, 2026 midterm election.
88.0%+0.5 pts 24h
Will the Republican Party win the TN-05 House seat?
Updated · Volume $53.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the TN-05 House seat? | 88.0% | +0.5 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the TN-05 House seat? | 11.3% | -0.5 |
| Will another party win the TN-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the TN-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the TN-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the TN-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the TN-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the TN-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican Party is strongly favored, with the Democratic Party considered unlikely and the remaining scenarios all long shots.
Context
Aug 14, 2026
Probability rose from 92.5% to 96.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 7, 2026
Probability rose from 82.5% to 92.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Data updated 7 min ago. The contract for a Republican hold in TN-05 has traded at 88.0%. The market resolves to the party of the winning candidate in Tennessee's 5th congressional district during the 2026 U.S. midterms. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation; if none, it defaults to the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus. Settlement relies on a consensus of credible reporting, but if that proves ambiguous, the official results from the Federal Election Commission become the deciding source. The Nov 4, 2026 election is the central event that will resolve the contract. Ahead of that date, factors such as new polls, candidate withdrawals, or shifts in the broader political climate could alter the market's assessment. Once votes are counted, the outcome is settled according to the specified reporting sources.
FAQ
When does this market resolve?
It resolves after the November 3, 2026 midterm elections, once the winner of the TN-05 congressional district is conclusively determined.
How is the winning candidate's party determined?
The party is taken from the candidate's ballot-listed affiliation. If no party is listed on the ballot, the market looks to the party the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus with.
What sources are used to settle the outcome?
The market first seeks a consensus among credible news reports. If there is ambiguity, it falls back to the official election results published by the Federal Election Commission.
What happens if a candidate from a third party or an independent should somehow win?
The market's outcome space includes such possibilities, but they are treated as long shots due to their extremely low probability. The contract would resolve to that party if it were to occur.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice