TN-09 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price the Republican Party’s chance of winning the TN-09 House seat in 2026 at 87.5%, with the election set for November 3, 2026.
Will the Republican Party win the TN-09 House seat?
Updated · Volume $45.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the TN-09 House seat? | 87.5% | -1.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the TN-09 House seat? | 10.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the TN-09 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the TN-09 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the TN-09 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the TN-09 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the TN-09 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the TN-09 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican Party is strongly favored to win, while a Democratic victory is considered unlikely; all other outcomes are long shots.
Context
The contract stands at 87.5%. It has traded between 83.5% and 92.0% over its lifetime. It is -1.0 pts over the last day. The market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 seat in the 2026 midterms. A candidate’s party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or, if none, by the party they most recently expressed an intent to caucus with. The market uses a consensus of credible reporting to determine the winner; if ambiguous, it falls back on official results from the Federal Election Commission. The formal trigger is the election itself on Nov 4, 2026. The outcome will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by the Federal Election Commission if needed.
FAQ
How is a candidate’s party determined?
By their ballot-listed affiliation. If a candidate has no such affiliation, the market looks at the party they most recently expressed an intent to caucus with.
What if the election result is contested?
The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. When there is ambiguity, it uses official results from the Federal Election Commission.
When does the market resolve?
After the 2026 midterm elections, once the outcome is conclusively called by the resolution sources.
Are independent or third-party candidates considered?
Yes, but they would resolve as separate outcomes. Those scenarios are long shots.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice