Aug 3, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 82.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Toronto Mayoral Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election at 88.0%.
88.0%-0.5 pts 24h
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
Updated · Volume $174.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | 88.0% | -0.5 |
| Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | 12.0% | +0.5 |
| Will Marco Mendicino win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Anthony Furey win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Ana Bailão win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will John Tory win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Michael Ford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kevin Clarke win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will someone else win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 99.7% of the total probability.
Context
Aug 2, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 81.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 9 tracked outcomes and $174.6K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election, is priced at 88.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice