Toronto Mayoral Election Winner: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election at 89.5%.

89.5%0.0 pts 24h

Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

Updated · Volume $148.4K

82%85%88%92%Aug 12Aug 20Aug 27Sep 4Sep 11
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?89.5%0.0
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?5.5%-0.5
Will John Tory win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?0.9%0.0
Will Marco Mendicino win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?0.5%+0.1
Will Anthony Furey win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?0.1%0.0
Will Michael Ford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?0.1%0.0
Will Kevin Clarke win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?0.1%0.0
Will Ana Bailão win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?0.1%0.0
Will someone else win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?0.0%0.0

The top 5 outcomes account for 99.5% of the total probability.

Context

Aug 3, 2026

Probability rose from 79.5% to 82.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.

Aug 2, 2026

Probability rose from 79.5% to 81.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 9 tracked outcomes and $148.4K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election, is priced at 89.5%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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