Tour de France 2026 Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price a Tadej Pogačar victory at 95.5%—near-certain territory—with the 2026 Tour de France scheduled to run from July 4 to July 26.
Will Cyclist AB win the 2026 Tour De France?
Updated · Volume $752.5K
Across platforms
46.0 pt spreadWill Cyclist AB win the 2026 Tour De France?
- Polymarket50.0%
- Kalshi96.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France? | 95.5% | +2.0 |
| Will Cyclist AB win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist AF win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist AJ win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist AI win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BU win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BY win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist CA win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist L win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist AQ win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist F win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist G win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist H win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist I win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist J win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist V win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist W win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BR win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist B win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist Z win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist AU win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist AV win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BF win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BZ win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist E win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist U win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist P win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BM win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BV win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist AE win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BX win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BP win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BQ win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BJ win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist AD win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist AH win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BK win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist K win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will someone else win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BG win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist AO win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BH win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist Y win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist C win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist AC win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist N win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist AP win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist D win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist CB win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist AA win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BO win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist Q win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist AK win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist S win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist AX win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BA win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist R win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist AM win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BC win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist AL win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist AY win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist AW win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BD win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BL win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist AZ win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BB win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BT win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BS win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist M win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist A win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist O win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BW win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BI win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BN win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist X win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist BE win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist T win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist AG win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist AR win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist AS win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist AN win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Cyclist AT win the 2026 Tour De France? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France? | 3.7% | — |
| Will Isaac del Toro win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.8% | — |
| Will Paul Seixas win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.6% | — |
| Will Remco Evenepoel win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Florian Lipowitz win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Thymen Arensman win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Jai Hindley win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Michael Storer win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Sepp Kuss win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Luke Plapp win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Warren Barguil win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Brandon McNulty win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Valentin Paret-Peintre win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Derek Gee-West win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Antonio Tiberi win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Tobias Halland Johannessen win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Lennert Van Eetvelt win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Mattias Skjelmose win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Ilan Van Wilder win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Matthew Riccitello win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Tom Pidcock win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Juan Ayuso win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Cian Uijtdebroeks win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Ben O'Connor win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Kévin Vauquelin win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Ben Healy win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Lenny Martinez win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Egan Bernal win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Matteo Jorgenson win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Richard Carapaz win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Adam Yates win the 2026 Tour De France? | 0.1% | — |
Tadej Pogačar is near-certain to claim a fourth Tour title, with the remaining field priced at distant odds.
Context
The contract tracking Pogačar's win has held firmly at 95.5%., reflecting a market where his dominance barely wavers. The market resolves to the cyclist who wins the 2026 Tour de France, scheduled for July 4 through July 26, 2026. If a listed rider becomes unable to win under UCI rules, their contract settles to “No.” Should the Tour be cancelled, or postponed beyond August 9, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared by that deadline, the market resolves to “Other.” The primary resolution source is official UCI information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The principal conditions that would shift the probability are formal milestones: the approaching race dates Aug 9, 2026, any official announcements of rider withdrawals or race changes before the start, and the final resolution deadline on August 9, 2026. The market is sensitive to information from UCI or consensus reporting, as specified in the rules.
FAQ
How is the winner of the Tour de France determined?
The rider with the lowest cumulative time across all stages, as per official UCI rules, is declared the winner.
What happens if a listed cyclist cannot win?
The market for that cyclist resolves to “No” once it becomes impossible for them to win under UCI rules.
What if the 2026 Tour de France is cancelled?
If the race is cancelled, or postponed past August 9, 2026, or no winner is declared by that deadline, the market resolves to “Other.”
What is the resolution source?
The primary source is official UCI information; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Can the market resolve before the race ends?
It can resolve early for individual riders if they are eliminated from winning under UCI rules, otherwise it resolves when a winner is declared or at the deadline.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice