Sep 17, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 18.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Trump Election Interference Emergency Odds
Markets price the chance at 16.5%, a unlikely, that President Trump formally declares a national emergency over election interference by 17 July. The declaration must satisfy strict criteria under the National Emergencies Act.
16.5%-1.0 pts 24h
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?
Updated · Volume $199.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? | 16.5% | -1.0 |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by July 17? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
While the July deadline is the central question, the December deadline is seen as an outside chance.
Context
Sep 16, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 19.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 12, 2026
Probability rose from 16.5% to 23.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 17.0% to 22.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 25.0% to 16.5% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 26, 2026
Probability fell from 25.0% to 18.0% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 22.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability rose from 20.0% to 30.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Trump laying groundwork to impose national emergency by sowing election distrust — The Guardian US
Aug 16, 2026
Probability fell from 32.0% to 21.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 22.0% to 32.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
The probability of a declaration by mid-July currently stands at 16.5%. Trading has ranged from 15.0% to 35.5% since the market launched. For the market to resolve to Yes, President Trump must issue a formal declaration under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.) that explicitly cites interference in U.S. elections, election processes, systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines. This must occur on or before 17 July 2026. Informal statements, social media posts, draft orders, or executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the Act will not suffice. Renewals or extensions of existing emergencies count only if the text is materially modified to relate to election interference. The market will react to any official publication that meets these criteria, with the Federal Register and White House publications serving as the primary resolution sources. If no qualifying declaration appears by the deadline, the market resolves to No. Ambiguous actions or legal challenges after the fact do not change the resolution.
FAQ
What qualifies as a formal declaration under the National Emergencies Act?
It must be an official proclamation issued by the president that explicitly invokes the National Emergencies Act and references interference in U.S. elections, election processes, systems, or voting procedures. Informal statements, social media posts, or draft orders do not qualify.
What sources are used to verify a declaration?
The primary resolution sources are the Federal Register and official White House publications. If those are ambiguous, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Does a renewal or extension of an existing national emergency count?
Only if the renewal text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference. Otherwise, it does not qualify.
When is the deadline for this market?
The market resolves based on whether a qualifying declaration occurs on or before 17 July 2026.
What if the declaration is legally challenged after being issued?
The market resolves solely on whether a formal declaration meeting the criteria was issued by the deadline. Subsequent legal proceedings do not affect the outcome.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice