Trump out as President by July 31? Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of Donald Trump leaving office at 0.7% — effectively ruled out. The contract expires on Jul 31, 2026.
Updated · Volume $925.0K
The 'No' outcome is heavily favored, with the prospect of removal before the deadline priced as a remote tail.
Context
Trajectory: The probability today stands at 0.7%. Resolution: This contract settles to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns, is removed from office, or otherwise permanently ceases to be President at any point before the contract's close. An announcement of a departure before that deadline resolves the market to Yes immediately, even if the effective date is later. Temporary removal—such as a Section 3 invocation of the 25th Amendment or a Section 4 challenge not upheld by Congress—does not count. A sustained Section 4 invocation, however, qualifies. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting. What would move the number: Any formal step toward removal could shift expectations. These include impeachment votes in the House, a Senate trial, a sustained 25th Amendment Section 4 determination, a resignation, or medical incapacitation that triggers constitutional processes. Because the market has a fixed expiry, only events before that cutoff matter.
FAQ
What counts as a permanent removal?
A resignation, impeachment conviction and removal by the Senate, or a sustained invocation of the 25th Amendment Section 4 that results in the president being relieved of powers permanently. Temporary transfers of power do not qualify.
How does an announcement before the deadline affect the market?
If a qualifying announcement—such as a resignation—is made before the market’s close, the contract resolves to Yes immediately, even if the actual departure occurs later.
Does a temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment trigger a Yes?
No. Only a sustained invocation—where both Houses of Congress uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination by a two-thirds vote—counts. A Section 3 voluntary transfer or an unsuccessful Section 4 challenge does not settle the market to Yes.
How is the resolution source determined?
The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. If major news outlets agree that a qualifying event has occurred, the market will settle accordingly.
What happens if the president is removed but reinstated?
The market resolves to Yes at the moment of removal. Subsequent reinstatement does not change the outcome, as the condition is that he ceases to be president “for any period of time.”
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice