Trump Removed via 25th Amendment: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give a 3.1% chance that Donald Trump is ousted through the 25th Amendment's Section 4 process by Jan 1, 2027.
Updated · Volume $50.8K
The market treats Trump's removal under the 25th Amendment as a long shot, with the alternative—him finishing his term—remaining the dominant expectation.
Context
The probability now sits at 3.1%., moving -0.1 pts in the past day. The market resolves to 'Yes' only if Trump is formally removed from the presidency under Section 4 of the 25th Amendment by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A voluntary transfer of power under Section 3 does not count, nor does any other departure from office—those scenarios resolve to 'No'. The resolution relies on official US government information. The contract's outcome hinges on a specific trigger: confirmation by official US government sources that Trump has been removed via the Section 4 process before the Jan 1, 2027 deadline. Any development that makes that trigger more or less likely can shift the probability.
FAQ
What is the difference between Section 3 and Section 4 of the 25th Amendment?
Section 3 allows the president to temporarily transfer power by notifying Congress of an inability to discharge duties; the vice president becomes acting president until the president declares otherwise. Section 4 is an involuntary process where the vice president and a majority of the cabinet declare the president unfit. This market only tracks Section 4 removals.
What happens if Trump leaves office for another reason?
If Trump resigns, is impeached, or leaves office for any reason other than a Section 4 removal, the market resolves to 'No'.
What is the resolution source?
Official information from the US government determines the outcome. The market does not rely on media reports or other non-official sources.
When does the market expire?
The deadline is December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Only a Section 4 removal before then triggers a 'Yes' resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice