TX-11 House Election: Republican Win Probability
Prediction markets give the Republican Party a 93.5% chance of holding Texas’ 11th Congressional District in the 2026 midterms, the clear expectation.
Will the Republican Party win the TX-11 House seat?
Updated · Volume $32.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the TX-11 House seat? | 93.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the TX-11 House seat? | 5.5% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the TX-11 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the TX-11 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the TX-11 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the TX-11 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the TX-11 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the TX-11 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
A Republican victory is the clear expectation, and all other scenarios are remote tail risks.
Context
The contract currently trades at 93.5%. In the past 24 hours, the figure moved 0.0 pts. The market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-11 seat on November 3, 2026. A candidate’s party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or, if none, the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus. If credible news sources disagree, resolution defaults to official results from the Federal Election Commission. The settlement date is Nov 4, 2026. The market will resolve based on the consensus of credible election reporting, with the FEC as the fallback.
FAQ
How is the winning party decided?
It is based on the candidate’s ballot-listed party affiliation. If no affiliation is listed, the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus is used.
What happens if the election is too close to call?
The market waits for a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity persists, it falls back to official results published by the Federal Election Commission.
Who provides the official results?
The Federal Election Commission (FEC) serves as the definitive source when credible news outlets disagree or results are unclear.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves after the November 3, 2026 election, once a winner is conclusively determined by reporting or official channels.
Can the market resolve early?
No. It can only resolve once the election outcome is known and reported according to the market’s rules.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice