TX-21 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price the Republican Party’s chances of winning the TX-21 congressional district seat at 93.5% as of 9 min ago.
Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat?
Updated · Volume $64.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat? | 93.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the TX-21 House seat? | 5.5% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the TX-21 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the TX-21 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the TX-21 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the TX-21 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the TX-21 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the TX-21 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican Party is strongly favored to take the seat, while the Democratic Party has an outside chance. All other scenarios are long shots.
Context
The forecast has been remarkably stable. Over the past day, the change was 0.0 pts. The lowest the probability has been is 86.5%, and its peak is 93.5%. This market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the November 3, 2026 election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting outlets. If the outcome is ambiguous, official results from the Federal Election Commission will settle it. A candidate’s party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation; if none is listed, the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus will be used. The formal resolution date is Nov 3, 2026. No other deadlines or scheduled events are specified in the contract. The number may shift if reporting suggests a change in the likely winner.
FAQ
How does this market resolve?
It resolves to the party of the candidate who wins Texas’s 21st congressional district in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections.
What sources determine the winner?
A consensus of credible reporting is used. If results are ambiguous, the market falls back on official figures from the Federal Election Commission.
What if a candidate runs without a clear party affiliation?
If a candidate is not listed on the ballot with a party, their party is based on the most recent expression of intent to caucus with either the Democratic or Republican Party.
When is the election?
Election Day is November 3, 2026.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice