TX-24 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets give the Republican Party 88.5% odds of keeping Texas's 24th congressional district in the 2026 midterms, strongly favored.
Will the Republican Party win the TX-24 House seat?
Updated · Volume $61.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the TX-24 House seat? | 88.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the TX-24 House seat? | 8.5% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the TX-24 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the TX-24 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the TX-24 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the TX-24 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the TX-24 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the TX-24 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican Party is strongly favored, while the Democratic Party has an outside chance; all other outcomes are negligible.
Context
Markets price the Republican Party's chance of holding Texas's 24th congressional district at 88.5%, making it strongly favored to retain the seat. Over the last day, the probability moved 0.0 pts. The market resolves to the party of the winner of the November 3, 2026 U.S. House election in TX-24. A candidate's party is determined by ballot-listed affiliation; if a candidate has no party listed, it follows their most recently stated caucus intention. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible news reporting, with the Federal Election Commission's official results serving as the fallback if there is ambiguity. The market settles after the November 3, 2026 election, relying on a consensus of credible reporting. Should the outcome be disputed, it defers to the official results from the Federal Election Commission. The listed resolution date is Nov 4, 2026.
FAQ
What does this market predict?
It reflects the probability that the Republican Party candidate wins the TX-24 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
How is a candidate's party determined?
By the party listed on the ballot. If no party is listed, it's based on the party they most recently said they intend to caucus with.
When does the market resolve?
After the November 3, 2026 election, once a consensus of credible reporting confirms the winner, or the FEC releases official results if there is ambiguity.
What happens if the winner is an independent or third-party candidate?
The market resolves to the party that candidate represents, based on their caucus intentions or ballot affiliation. Such outcomes are very unlikely.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice