Aug 18, 2026
Probability rose from 94.1% to 97.9% — a 3.8-point move over the past day.
TX-37 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price a Democratic win in Texas’s 37th congressional district at 98.2%, with the election set for November 3, 2026.
98.2%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-37 House seat?
Updated · Volume $42.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the TX-37 House seat? | 98.2% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the TX-37 House seat? | 1.1% | -0.1 |
| Will E win the TX-37 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the TX-37 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the TX-37 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the TX-37 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the TX-37 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the TX-37 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic win is near-certain, while alternatives are all trading as remote possibilities.
Context
Aug 1, 2026
Probability rose from 94.2% to 97.4% — a 3.2-point move over the past day.
The contract has been near-certain throughout the period, trading at 98.2%. The market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins Texas’s 37th district in the 2026 US House midterm elections on November 3, 2026. A candidate’s party is taken from their ballot-listed affiliation or, lacking that, the caucus they most recently stated an intent to join. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible election reporting; disputes fall back to the Federal Election Commission’s official tally. The election date of November 3, 2026, remains the clearest catalyst. Until then, the line is likely to stay rangebound, with any movement concentrated around voting day as reports from the FEC or authoritative outlets come in.
FAQ
When does this market resolve?
It resolves after the 2026 US House midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026, once a winner in Texas’s 37th district is clearly determined.
How is the winning candidate's party decided?
The market uses the party that appears next to the candidate’s name on the ballot. If no party is listed, it uses the party they most recently said they intend to caucus with in Congress.
What counts as a resolution source?
Normally, a consensus of credible news reports determines the winner. If reports conflict, the market defers to official results from the Federal Election Commission.
Does this market cover a specific candidate or just the party?
It covers only the party of the winner—Democratic or otherwise.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice