Sep 8, 2026
Probability fell from 53.5% to 35.0% — a 18.5-point move over the past day.
Tyler Robinson Homicide Conviction Odds
Prediction markets assign a 22.5% probability that Tyler Robinson is convicted of homicide, a figure that has the outlook a substantial minority view. The charge stems from the death of Charlie Kirk, and the case must reach a resolution by Dec 31, 2026.
22.5%-0.5 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $425.5K
The conviction outcome is the linchpin of this market; the 'No' side simply reflects the absence of such a conviction by the deadline.
Context
Sep 7, 2026
Probability rose from 37.5% to 53.5% — a 16.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 40.5% to 37.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 23.0% to 40.5% — a 17.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 38.5% to 26.0% — a 12.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 41.5% to 31.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability fell from 42.5% to 39.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Judge to decide if Tyler Robinson will go to trial in Charlie Kirk murder case — NPR News
Aug 25, 2026
Probability fell from 62.0% to 51.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability rose from 49.5% to 62.0% — a 12.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability fell from 57.5% to 47.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
The conviction probability sits at 22.5%, having moved between 22.5% and 72.0% over the tracked period. Day-on-day, it shifted -0.5 pts. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in State of Utah v. Tyler James Robinson by Dec 31, 2026. A 'No' resolution occurs if no such conviction is secured by that deadline, or if the case ends via a plea bargain without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any situation lacking a court judgment. Should the specific homicide charge be dropped or modified into a non-homicide offense, the market resolves to 'No' immediately. A mistrial leaves the market open until Dec 31, 2026 to allow for retrials, absent a conviction by then. Only the initial judgment counts; appeals do not influence the outcome. Formally, the probability could move in response to Dec 31, 2026 as the cutoff, court scheduling announcements, and the final judgment. The resolution source is the official court judgment, with credible reporting as a backup.
FAQ
What counts as a homicide conviction here?
Any conviction under Utah's criminal homicide statutes—including lesser included offenses that remain classified as criminal homicide—in the case State of Utah v. Tyler James Robinson.
What if there is a plea deal?
If the case concludes via a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any outcome without a judgment, the market resolves to 'No'.
Do appeals matter?
No. The market resolves on the initial judgment from the trial court. Any appeal has no effect on the outcome.
What happens after a mistrial?
The market stays open until Dec 31, 2026 to account for potential retrials. If no homicide conviction is rendered by that date, it resolves to 'No'.
What if the charges are changed?
If the specific charge is dropped or changed such that it is no longer a criminal homicide offense, the market resolves to 'No' immediately.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice