Sep 21, 2026
Probability fell from 41.0% to 37.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
US Cuba Oil Sanction Relief by December 31: Odds & Probability
Markets price the likelihood of a US announcement on Cuba oil sanctions by December 31 at 41.0%, a close to a coin flip prospect as of 13 min ago.
41.0%0.0 pts 24h
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by December 31?
Updated · Volume $46.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by December 31? | 41.0% | 0.0 |
| US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by September 30? | 25.5% | +0.5 |
| US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline December 31 deadline captures most attention but remains a minority probability; a September 30 window is less favored, and all other timelines are considered long shots.
Context
Sep 20, 2026
Probability rose from 15.0% to 41.0% — a 26.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 19, 2026
Probability fell from 41.5% to 38.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 10, 2026
Probability rose from 31.0% to 44.0% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 21.5% to 41.5% — a 20.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 8, 2026
Probability rose from 18.0% to 21.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 8, 2026
Probability rose from 19.0% to 22.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 7, 2026
Probability rose from 18.0% to 24.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 31.5% to 19.0% — a 12.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: US continues to squeeze Cuban economy with new round of sanctions — Al Jazeera
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 8.0% to 22.5% — a 14.5-point move over the past day.
The headline probability now stands at 41.0%. Over the past day, it has moved 0.0 pts. The contract has seen a range from 14.5% to 46.0% since its inception. The market resolves to Yes if, by December 31 at 11:59 PM ET, the US government definitively announces a relaxation, suspension, or removal of sanctions on oil and fuel trade with Cuba. Qualifying announcements include explicit relief or the non-imposition of tariffs on oil-exporting countries. Suggestions or non-definitive statements do not count. Any announcement that meets the criteria within the timeframe triggers a Yes, even if the relief itself takes effect later. The primary resolution source is official US information, but a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The probability is sensitive to the time left before the deadline. The market's odds will decline as December 31 approaches without a qualifying announcement, or jump sharply on news of a concrete policy shift. An official statement from the US government, or a consensus of credible reports confirming one, would reprice the contract immediately.
FAQ
What kind of announcement qualifies?
Any definitive statement from Donald Trump or the US government that explicitly reduces, suspends, removes, or relaxes sanctions on oil or fuel trade with Cuba. A pledge not to impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba also qualifies. Non-binding suggestions or expressions of openness do not count.
Does the relief have to take effect before the deadline?
No. The market resolves Yes if a qualifying announcement is made by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, regardless of when the actual policy change happens.
How is the outcome determined?
Resolution primarily relies on official information from the US government. If those sources are ambiguous, the market may use a consensus of credible news reports.
What if no announcement is made by December 31?
The market resolves to No.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice