Sep 15, 2026
Probability fell from 24.5% to 18.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
U.S. Enacts AI Safety Bill Before 2027: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give a 20.0% chance that the U.S. enacts a federal law with specific AI safety measures by Jan 1, 2027.
20.0%+8.5 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $119.5K
The 'Yes' outcome is the central question; the 'No' outcome captures the rest of the probability.
Context
Sep 14, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 24.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Committee calls for bill to address AI threat to human rights — BBC Business
Sep 12, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 13.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: US legislators push AI safety laws amid human extinction warnings — Al Jazeera
Sep 12, 2026
Probability fell from 23.5% to 19.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: US legislators push AI safety laws amid human extinction warnings — Al Jazeera
Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 11.0% to 23.5% — a 12.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Lawmakers blast AI companies after researcher warns of human extinction by 2030 — The Guardian
Show earlier updates
Sep 10, 2026
Probability rose from 10.5% to 28.0% — a 17.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Lawmakers blast AI companies after researcher warns of human extinction by 2030 — The Guardian
Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 22.5% to 15.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 13, 2026
Probability rose from 19.0% to 22.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 10, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 18.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 9, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 19.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
As of 7 min ago, the market prices the chance of enactment at 20.0%. The probability has ranged from 9.0% to 39.5% since the market opened. Over the past day, it moved by +8.5 pts. The market resolves to 'Yes' if a bill containing at least one of four provisions—prohibition on creating or releasing certain AI systems, training restrictions, usage restrictions, or human-in-the-loop requirements—is signed into federal law by Jan 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. Official U.S. government records or a consensus of credible reporting serve as the resolution source. The only formal trigger is the deadline of Jan 1, 2027. No intermediate timelines are built into the market, but visible progress in Congress—such as the introduction or advancement of a qualifying bill—could alter the probability as traders assess the likelihood of a signature by year-end.
FAQ
What qualifies as an AI safety bill for this market?
A bill must include at least one of: a prohibition on creating or releasing certain AI systems, limits on training (such as data or parameter restrictions), restrictions on usage (e.g., interacting with customers or performing web actions), or requirements for human oversight.
When does the bill need to be enacted?
The bill must be signed into federal law by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time.
Who determines whether the resolution conditions are met?
The outcome is determined from official U.S. government sources, such as Congress.gov, or a consensus of credible reporting.
What if a bill is passed but lacks all these provisions?
The market would resolve to 'No'; at least one of the four specific provisions must be included.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice