UT-01 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price the Democratic candidate's chances of winning the UT-01 House seat in the 2026 midterms at 94.5%, making it strongly favored.
Will the Democratic Party win the UT-01 House seat?
Updated · Volume $42.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the UT-01 House seat? | 94.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the UT-01 House seat? | 4.0% | -0.1 |
| Will A win the UT-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the UT-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the UT-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the UT-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the UT-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the UT-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic candidate is the clear expectation; the remaining scenarios are all long shots.
Context
The probability has settled at 94.5%, It shifted by 0.0 pts in the past day Trading volume stands at $42.2K. Data as of 10 min ago. To resolve, the market will look to the party of the winning candidate in the UT-01 congressional district in the 2026 midterms, scheduled for November 3, 2026. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation; if none is listed, the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with at the time the House elections are called. The market settles based on a consensus of credible reporting, or, if that is unclear, the official results from the Federal Election Commission. Formally, the market is tied to the election result. The resolution date is Nov 5, 2026, when voters cast ballots. The outcome will be determined once the race is conclusively called by a consensus of credible news organizations, with the FEC serving as a backstop for any ambiguity.
FAQ
How is the winning party identified?
The market uses the candidate's ballot-listed party affiliation. If no party is listed, it looks to the party the candidate most recently expressed intent to caucus with at the time all House elections are called.
What happens if the election result is disputed?
The market first looks to a consensus of credible reporting. If that is ambiguous, it falls back on the official results reported by the Federal Election Commission.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves after the 2026 midterm elections, once the UT-01 race is conclusively determined. The election takes place on November 3, 2026, but final resolution may come later depending on reporting and certification.
What if an independent candidate wins?
Independent candidates are assigned to either the Democratic or Republican party based on which they indicate they will caucus with. The market will resolve to that party.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice