UT-04 House Election Winner: Live Odds & Probability
Markets price the Republican Party's chance of holding Utah's 4th district at 94.5%. The probability has moved 0.0 pts over the past day.
Will the Republican Party win the UT-04 House seat?
Updated · Volume $42.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the UT-04 House seat? | 94.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the UT-04 House seat? | 4.3% | -0.1 |
| Will C win the UT-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the UT-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the UT-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the UT-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the UT-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the UT-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican Party is strongly favored to win, while all other outcomes are long shots.
Context
The headline probability now sits at 94.5%. This market resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins Utah's 4th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The election takes place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or, if unaffiliated, the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus as of the time the elections are conclusively called. The resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, or official FEC results if there is ambiguity. The formal conditions that could shift the probability are straightforward: the election date itself—Nov 4, 2026—and any credible reporting indicating a change in the likely outcome. Until the election, the number reflects the market's assessment of the race.
FAQ
When does this market resolve?
It resolves after the 2026 midterm elections, once the winner of the UT-04 House seat is conclusively called by credible reporting or, if needed, official FEC results.
How is the winning party determined?
The market resolves to the party of the winning candidate. Party identification is based on ballot-listed affiliation. If a candidate has no ballot-listed affiliation, it defaults to the party with which they last expressed an intent to caucus at the time the elections are called.
What sources are used to settle the market?
It relies first on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market defers to the official results published by the Federal Election Commission.
What happens if the election is delayed?
The market resolves based on the eventual official outcome, whenever it is finalized. There is no fixed time-out; it waits for a conclusive call.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice