Aug 29, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 96.4% — a 1.9-point move over the past day.
VA-03 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price the Democratic Party's chance of keeping Virginia's 3rd congressional district at 95.7% for the November 2026 midterms.
95.7%-0.1 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-03 House seat?
Updated · Volume $63.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the VA-03 House seat? | 95.7% | -0.1 |
| Will the Republican Party win the VA-03 House seat? | 4.5% | +0.1 |
| Will another party win the VA-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the VA-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the VA-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the VA-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the VA-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the VA-03 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic candidate is strongly favored, while other outcomes (including a Republican win) are far less likely.
Context
Aug 28, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 96.0% — a 1.6-point move over the past day.
The contract sits at 95.7%, moving -0.1 pts over the last day. This market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The election takes place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or, if none is listed, by the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus when the House elections are conclusively called. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting; if that is ambiguous, the market settles based on official results from the Federal Election Commission. Formal conditions that could shift the price include the approach of the election date (Nov 3, 2026), any events that alter the composition of the candidates or the clarity of party affiliation ahead of November 2026, and the eventual release of official results by the resolution source.
FAQ
How does this market determine the winner?
It resolves to the party of the candidate elected in VA-03. The election itself is November 3, 2026. First, a consensus of credible reporting is used; if that is unclear, the Federal Election Commission's official results settle the market.
What happens if a candidate is not affiliated with Democrat or Republican?
If a candidate's ballot does not list a party, their affiliation is determined by the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called.
When will this market resolve?
Resolution occurs after the election is conclusively called by the sources. It could be on election night or later if the race is close, but no later than when official results are certified.
What happens if the election result is disputed?
The market first looks to a consensus of credible reporting. If that remains ambiguous, it falls back to the official Federal Election Commission results.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice