Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 78.5% to 82.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
VA-05 House Election: Which Party Will Win?
Markets now price a Republican win in Virginia's 5th congressional district at 83.5%, making it the strongly favored to keep the seat in the 2026 midterms.
83.5%-2.5 pts 24h
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?
Updated · Volume $68.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat? | 83.5% | -2.5 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat? | 16.5% | +1.5 |
| Will A win the VA-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the VA-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the VA-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the VA-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the VA-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the VA-05 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican Party is the favored outcome, with the Democratic Party remaining a substantial minority view. Other outcomes are negligible.
Context
Aug 19, 2026
Probability rose from 78.5% to 82.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 80.0% to 79.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 81.5% to 78.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 79.0% to 81.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 16, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 79.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 81.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 13, 2026
Probability fell from 84.5% to 79.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 12, 2026
Probability rose from 78.0% to 84.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 11, 2026
Probability rose from 77.0% to 83.0% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
The probability of a Republican victory currently sits at 83.5%. This market resolves according to the party of the winner of the VA-05 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation. If a candidate lacks a ballot-listed affiliation with either major party, the relevant party is the one with which they have expressed intent to caucus at the time all House elections are conclusively called. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguity persists, the market defaults to the official results from the Federal Election Commission. The market will resolve after the 2026 midterm elections. The resolution date is Nov 3, 2026. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the final arbiter. These are the only formal conditions that settle the contract.
FAQ
How is a candidate's party determined for this market?
Party is defined by the candidate's ballot-listed affiliation. For a candidate without such an affiliation, the party is the one with which they have expressed an intent to caucus at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called.
What sources does the market rely on to call the election?
Resolution hinges on a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity remains, official results from the Federal Election Commission are used.
When will the market resolve?
The market settles after the 2026 midterms, once the winner is clear. If credible reports conflict, it waits for official FEC certification.
What if the winning candidate changes party affiliation after the election?
The market uses the affiliation at the time all House elections are conclusively called. Post-election changes do not affect the outcome.
Are independent or third-party candidates considered?
They are not separate outcomes. If such a candidate wins, the market resolves to the party with which they intend to caucus, as determined at the time of resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice