Aug 26, 2026
Probability rose from 94.8% to 97.0% — a 2.1-point move over the past day.
VA-09 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give the Republican Party a 96.0% chance of holding the VA-09 House seat in the 2026 midterms, making the GOP near-certain. The market resolves according to the party of the winner on Nov 4, 2026.
96.0%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Republican Party win the VA-09 House seat?
Updated · Volume $66.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the VA-09 House seat? | 96.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the VA-09 House seat? | 2.3% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the VA-09 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the VA-09 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the VA-09 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the VA-09 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the VA-09 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the VA-09 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
A Republican victory is near-certain, with other outcomes all considered long shots.
Context
The implied probability now stands at 96.0%. In the past 24 hours, the price shifted by 0.0 pts. This market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-09 congressional district in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections on Nov 4, 2026. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or, if none, by their most recently expressed intent to caucus with a party at the time the election is conclusively called. The outcome is based on a consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguous, it relies on official results from the Federal Election Commission. The resolution date is Nov 4, 2026, after which the market settles based on the official result or credible reporting consensus. Updates to the candidate's party affiliation before that date could also affect pricing, as the market's rules tie the outcome to the listed party at the time the election is called.
FAQ
When does this market resolve?
It resolves after the 2026 midterm elections, once the winner of Virginia's 9th district is conclusive.
How is a candidate's party determined?
The market uses the party listed on the ballot. If there is no listing, it defaults to the party the candidate most recently said they would caucus with when the election is called.
What if the election result is disputed?
The market first looks for a consensus among credible news reports. If no consensus emerges, it uses the official result from the Federal Election Commission.
Does this market cover the general election only?
Yes, it resolves based on the winner of the general election for Virginia's 9th district, not primaries or special elections.
What happens if a candidate switches parties before resolution?
The market's rules consider the party affiliation at the time the election is conclusively called by the resolution sources. A late switch could affect the outcome.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice