Sep 8, 2026
Probability rose from 43.0% to 53.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Vancouver Mayoral Election: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election at 53.0%.
53.0%+0.5 pts 24h
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
Updated · Volume $193.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | 53.0% | +0.5 |
| Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | 33.5% | -1.1 |
| Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | 8.5% | +0.5 |
| Will Colleen Hardwick win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | 1.6% | -0.1 |
| Will John Coupar win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | 1.2% | +0.1 |
| Will Stephanie Allen win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | 1.2% | 0.0 |
| Will Fred Harding win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | 1.1% | +0.1 |
| Will Kirk LaPointe win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | 1.0% | 0.0 |
| Will William Azaroff win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | 0.8% | +0.1 |
| Will Rebecca Bligh win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | 0.7% | +0.1 |
| Will Amanda Burrows win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | 0.7% | +0.0 |
| Will Sean Orr win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Tim Louis win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will someone else win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 94.3% of the total probability.
Context
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 40.0% to 39.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability fell from 40.0% to 38.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 7, 2026
Probability rose from 0.0% to 48.5% — a 48.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 5, 2026
Probability rose from 23.5% to 33.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 1, 2026
Probability rose from 18.3% to 24.3% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 15.3% to 30.4% — a 15.2-point move over the past day.
Jul 24, 2026
Probability rose from 21.4% to 32.3% — a 10.9-point move over the past day.
Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 14.5% to 24.2% — a 9.7-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability rose from 6.7% to 23.9% — a 17.2-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 14 tracked outcomes and $193.3K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election, is priced at 53.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice