Sep 5, 2026
Probability fell from 95.5% to 94.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Venezuela De Facto Leader End 2026: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Delcy Rodríguez as strongly favored (92.5%) to hold de facto governing authority in Venezuela on December 31, 2026. The market assesses actual control over the armed forces and national institutions, not formal titles.
92.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
Updated · Volume $400.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | 92.5% | 0.0 |
| Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | 4.0% | -0.1 |
| Will Marco Rubio be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | 1.3% | -0.2 |
| Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | 0.7% | 0.0 |
| Will Dinorah Figuera be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | 0.5% | +0.2 |
| Will Pete Hegseth be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | 0.3% | +0.1 |
| Will Jorge Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | 0.2% | 0.0 |
| Will Vladimir Padrino López be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Donald Trump be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Richard Grenell be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Evan Pettus be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Edmundo González be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Frank Donovan be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Dan Caine be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Delcy Rodríguez is the clear frontrunner, with the remaining dozen or so potential claimants all priced as long shots.
Context
Jul 16, 2026
Probability fell from 95.0% to 90.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Venezuela’s interim government and opposition to begin formal talks — The Guardian
The market will resolve based on who demonstrably exercises primary governing authority over the Venezuelan state at the close of 2026. Formal titles, UN recognition, or foreign government acknowledgment are irrelevant. The key test is effective control over the armed forces, executive ministries, security services, and the ability to enforce national directives and hold the capital. If no individual clears that bar, the market resolves to “No Head of State”. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing de facto authority at that time. The formal conditions that could alter the probability are limited. The resolution date is [[opt|Dec 31, 2026]][[/opt]]. There are no other hardwired deadlines or scheduled events in the market rules. The final settlement will rest on the assessment of credible reporting around that date; new information about shifts in institutional control or internal power dynamics between now and then will be the primary driver of any repricing.
FAQ
What does “de facto leader” mean for this market?
It means the person who actually commands the armed forces, runs the executive branch, and controls the state apparatus within Venezuela, regardless of any formal title or international recognition.
Does this market require international recognition?
No. The market explicitly states that UN recognition or foreign government acknowledgment is neither necessary nor sufficient. Only practical, on-the-ground control counts.
What if there is a power vacuum?
If no single individual exercises effective governing authority at the deadline, the market resolves to “No Head of State”.
How is the resolution determined?
It is based on a consensus of credible reporting that assesses who holds effective power at the specified time. The market’s description lists specific indicators such as control over armed forces, ministries, and the capital.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice