Vermont Governor Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price a Republican victory in the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election at 87.0%, pointing to a strong expectation that the party will claim the office.
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
Updated · Volume $66.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | 87.0% | +0.5 |
| Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | 10.7% | 0.0 |
| Will Option H win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Other win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option C win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option D win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option B win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option G win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option I win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option J win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option A win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option F win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option E win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market sees a Republican win as strongly favored, while the Democratic outcome is unlikely and all other scenarios are long shots.
Context
The Republican contract currently sits at 87.0%. It has traded between 85.5% and 92.0% over the period. It added +0.5 pts in the past day. The market resolves according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election. A candidate is treated as representing a party if they are that party’s nominee. Settlement occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If the three sources disagree, the official certification determines the outcome. Independent candidacies are not captured by the Democratic or Republican outcomes, regardless of any party ties. Formal conditions that could shift prices include the resolution date (Nov 3, 2026), the naming of party nominees, and the eventual convergence of media calls or the certification finalisation. The rules also allow for other-party candidates to be added later, which may alter the distribution of odds.
FAQ
What does this market predict?
It predicts the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
How is the winner determined?
The market resolves when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If they do not agree, the official certification decides the outcome.
What if a candidate runs as an independent?
An independent candidate is not included under the Democratic or Republican outcomes, regardless of any past or present party affiliation.
Can candidates from other parties be added?
Yes, candidates who are not Democratic or Republican nominees—such as Greens, Libertarians, or independents—may be added at a later date.
When will the market resolve?
It resolves after the 2026 election once the three media sources align or, failing that, after official certification.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice