WA-04 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price the Republican Party to win the WA-04 seat at 92.0%, placing the outcome strongly favored. The market resolves based on the 2026 midterm election results.
Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat?
Updated · Volume $54.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat? | 92.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the WA-04 House seat? | 8.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the WA-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the WA-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the WA-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the WA-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the WA-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the WA-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market overwhelmingly points to a Republican win, while a Democratic victory is seen as an outside chance. All other potential outcomes are considered remote.
Context
The probability has moved within a range, standing now at 92.0%. This market settles according to the party of the winning candidate in Washington's 4th congressional district as determined by the 2026 midterm elections. A candidate’s party is defined by ballot-listed affiliation or, for those not explicitly listed, by their most recent stated intent to caucus with a particular party. If the result is clear from credible reporting, the market resolves on that consensus. In the event of ambiguity, it falls back to the official results reported by the Federal Election Commission. Between now and the election, formal conditions that could shift the probability include new candidate filings, changes to party affiliation declarations, or alterations in ballot access. However, the market will only resolve based on the final election outcome as reported.
FAQ
How is the winning party determined?
The market identifies the party of the winning candidate by their ballot-listed affiliation. If no party is listed, it uses the party they most recently expressed an intent to caucus with.
What counts as an official result?
If credible reporting sources reach a consensus on the winner, that consensus is used. If there is disagreement, the market resolves based on the official results from the Federal Election Commission.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves after the 2026 midterm elections, once the outcome is conclusively determined by the resolution sources.
What if a third-party or independent candidate wins?
The market only distinguishes between Republican and Democratic victories. Any other outcome is treated as a negligible tail and does not affect the main probabilities.
Are there any deadlines before the election?
The market does not have intermediate deadlines; it only settles upon the final election result.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice