Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 67.5% to 100.0% — a 32.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Donald Trump to deliver tribute during Lindsey Graham’s funeral service – US politics live — The Guardian US
Will Trump Say 'Sister' at Lindsey Graham Tribute: Odds & Probability
Markets price the likelihood that Donald Trump utters the word 'Sister' during his tribute to Lindsey Graham at 100.0%, making it near-certain. The tribute is scheduled for July 28, 2026, at the Washington National Cathedral.
9.5%-30.5 pts 24h
Will Trump say "Top Five" or "Top Ten" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
Updated · Volume $319.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | 100.0% | +33.5 |
| Will Trump say "Patriot" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | 100.0% | +18.5 |
| Will Trump say "Military" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | 100.0% | +26.6 |
| Will Trump say "Security" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | 100.0% | +34.5 |
| Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | 100.0% | +44.5 |
| Will Trump say "Air Force" or "Space Force" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | 100.0% | +22.5 |
| Will Trump say "Sister" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | 100.0% | +15.5 |
| Will Trump say "Stop Calling Me" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | 100.0% | +60.5 |
| Will Trump say "Worker" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | 100.0% | +29.5 |
| Will Trump say "Democrat" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | 100.0% | +36.0 |
| Will Trump say "Tough Cookie" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | 100.0% | +63.5 |
| Will Trump say "Top Five" or "Top Ten" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | 9.5% | -30.5 |
| Will Trump say "Ukraine" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | 4.0% | -71.5 |
| Will Trump say "Save America Act" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | 2.0% | -59.5 |
| Will Trump say "Afghanistan" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | 1.9% | -35.1 |
| Will Trump say "Israel" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | 1.2% | -70.3 |
| Will Trump say "Forever" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | 0.7% | -70.9 |
| Will Trump say "See You Soon" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | 0.1% | -32.5 |
| Will Trump say "Nobody Like Him" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | 0.1% | -51.5 |
| Will Trump say "Gay" or "Homosexual" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | 0.0% | -4.5 |
| Will Trump’s remarks not air? | 0.0% | -1.4 |
| Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | 0.0% | -36.5 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | 0.0% | -2.1 |
The 'Sister' outcome dominates, with all other specific terms trading at markedly lower odds.
Context
Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 56.0% to 100.0% — a 44.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Donald Trump to deliver tribute during Lindsey Graham’s funeral service – US politics live — The Guardian US
Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 75.5% to 100.0% — a 24.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Donald Trump to deliver tribute during Lindsey Graham’s funeral service – US politics live — The Guardian US
Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 41.0% to 100.0% — a 59.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Donald Trump to deliver tribute during Lindsey Graham’s funeral service – US politics live — The Guardian US
Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 34.5% to 100.0% — a 65.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Donald Trump to deliver tribute during Lindsey Graham’s funeral service – US politics live — The Guardian US
Show earlier updates
Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 58.2% to 100.0% — a 41.8-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Donald Trump to deliver tribute during Lindsey Graham’s funeral service – US politics live — The Guardian US
Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 90.5% to 100.0% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Donald Trump to deliver tribute during Lindsey Graham’s funeral service – US politics live — The Guardian US
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 69.0% to 81.5% — a 12.5-point move over the past day.
Markets have priced the 'Sister' outcome at 100.0%, near-certain. The contract has ranged from 0.1% to 58.0% across the period. The contract settles on a simple binary: a “Yes” if Trump speaks the word ‘Sister’ during his July 28, 2026, tribute at the Washington National Cathedral, and a “No” otherwise. Should the event be cancelled or fail to air by July 29, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, a “-No Qualifying Event-” contract resolves to “Yes” and all others to “No.” The official audio or video recording serves as the final arbiter. The market revolves around a fixed moment: Trump’s tribute on Jul 28, 2026. If the event is not aired by the following day, the “No Qualifying Event” outcome triggers. The resolution rests entirely on the audio/video record of that specific appearance.
FAQ
What counts as a mention?
The market resolves to 'Yes' if Trump audibly speaks the exact word or phrase during his tribute. Any utterance outside that scheduled event does not count.
What happens if the event is canceled?
If the tribute is definitively canceled or fails to air by July 29, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the '-No Qualifying Event-' contract resolves to 'Yes' and all other contracts resolve to 'No'.
How is the resolution determined?
The resolution source is the official audio or video recording of the event, ensuring an objective, verifiable settlement.
Does Trump have to say the word exactly?
Yes, the market checks for the specific term listed. Similar words or variations do not trigger a 'Yes' unless explicitly stated in the contract terms.
When will the market resolve?
The market will resolve shortly after the tribute concludes, once the recording is reviewed. The event is scheduled for July 28, 2026.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice