Housing for the 21st Century Act: 2026 Law Odds
Markets price the Housing for the 21st Century Act at 100.0%, a near-certain chance of becoming law this year. The legislation must pass both chambers of Congress and be signed by the president before the end of 2026.
Will AI-chip export licensing become law this year?
Updated · Volume $168.3K
Across platforms
66.9 pt spreadWill AI-chip export licensing become law this year?
- Polymarket33.0%
- Kalshi99.9%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will AI-chip export licensing become law this year? | 33.0% | -11.5 |
| Will Export-control chip security become law this year? | 30.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Data center utility cost protection become law this year? | 22.5% | +6.0 |
| Will the NO FAKES Act become law this year? | 21.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Film/TV production expensing become law this year? | 18.5% | +4.7 |
| Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? | 14.0% | -4.0 |
| Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year? | 9.0% | -2.5 |
| Will the Smithsonian Women’s History Museum become law this year? | 7.3% | +3.2 |
| Will the SHOWER Act become law this year? | 6.8% | -0.9 |
| Will $2.50 Coin become law this year? | 6.5% | +1.0 |
| Will Credit-card routing competition become law this year? | 5.3% | +0.2 |
| Will the SELF DRIVE Act become law this year? | 3.8% | -0.5 |
| Will the DEFIANCE Act become law this year? | 2.3% | -0.3 |
| Will Trump Airport become law this year? | 2.1% | -1.9 |
The Housing for the 21st Century Act is the overwhelming favorite; the other proposals, from the DEFIANCE Act to the Smithsonian museum, face markedly lower odds.
Context
The market has been remarkably stable, with prices fluctuating between 23.0% and 78.5%, a -11.5 pts move over the past day. For the bill to count, it must be passed by both the House and the Senate and then either signed by the president, become law without a signature while Congress remains in session, or be enacted via a veto override. A pocket veto that expires while Congress is adjourned means the bill fails. The market uses official sources—Congress.gov and the Library of Congress—but can also rely on credible reporting if needed. The final deadline is Jan 1, 2027. Odds could shift on signs of legislative progress, such as committee votes or floor passage, or on signals from the White House about a possible veto. The resolution source is fixed—the bill’s status on Congress.gov—so any development that changes the likelihood of enactment by the cutoff would move the price.
FAQ
What does it mean for the Housing for the 21st Century Act to “become law”?
It means the bill passes both chambers of Congress and is signed by the president, or becomes law without signature while Congress is in session, or Congress overrides a presidential veto.
When does this market resolve?
The market will resolve after the end of 2026, based on whether the bill was enacted by the close of the year. A pocket veto that expires without signature while Congress is adjourned resolves to “No”.
What sources are used to confirm the outcome?
The primary source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker and the Library of Congress. Credible reporting may supplement official records if needed.
Are joint resolutions included?
Yes, qualifying legislation includes joint resolutions that meet the same passage and signature requirements.
What happens if the president vetoes the bill?
Congress can override the veto with a two-thirds vote in each chamber, and the bill would then become law. If the override fails, the bill does not become law and the market resolves to “No”.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice