Top AI Model by 2026: Prediction Market Odds

Prediction markets price Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026 at 26.5%.

26.5%0.0 pts 24h

Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Updated · Volume $159.5K

13%22%31%40%Aug 24Aug 31Sep 8Sep 15Sep 23
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?26.5%0.0
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?25.5%+1.0
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?12.5%0.0
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?10.5%0.0
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?10.0%0.0
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?7.5%0.0
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?7.0%-0.5
Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?6.5%0.0
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?5.5%0.0
Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?4.5%0.0
Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?3.3%0.0
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?2.5%0.0
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?2.4%-0.5
Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?0.9%0.0

The top 5 outcomes account for 68.0% of the total probability.

Context

Sep 9, 2026

Probability rose from 22.5% to 35.5% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.

Aug 30, 2026

Probability rose from 8.5% to 23.0% — a 14.5-point move over the past day.

Aug 29, 2026

Probability rose from 8.5% to 39.5% — a 31.0-point move over the past day.

Aug 13, 2026

Probability rose from 8.5% to 49.0% — a 40.5-point move over the past day.

Jul 23, 2026

Probability rose from 11.5% to 40.5% — a 29.0-point move over the past day.

Show earlier updates

Jul 21, 2026

Probability rose from 5.5% to 25.0% — a 19.5-point move over the past day.

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 14 tracked outcomes and $159.5K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026, is priced at 26.5%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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