Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 22.5% to 35.5% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Top AI Model by 2026: Prediction Market Odds
Prediction markets price Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026 at 26.5%.
26.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $159.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 26.5% | 0.0 |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 25.5% | +1.0 |
| Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 12.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 10.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 10.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 7.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 7.0% | -0.5 |
| Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 6.5% | 0.0 |
| Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 5.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 4.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 3.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 2.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 2.4% | -0.5 |
| Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 0.9% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 68.0% of the total probability.
Context
Aug 30, 2026
Probability rose from 8.5% to 23.0% — a 14.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 29, 2026
Probability rose from 8.5% to 39.5% — a 31.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 13, 2026
Probability rose from 8.5% to 49.0% — a 40.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 11.5% to 40.5% — a 29.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 21, 2026
Probability rose from 5.5% to 25.0% — a 19.5-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 14 tracked outcomes and $159.5K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026, is priced at 26.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice