Which NFL players will be traded?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets see a trade involving Jonathan Greenard as near-certain, pricing the likelihood at 100.0%. The market will resolve based on official NFL transactions or credible reporting by the Jul 22, 2026 deadline.
Will Trey Hendrickson be traded?
Updated · Volume $1.4M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Jonathan Greenard be traded? | 100.0% | — |
| Will AJ Brown be traded? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Trey Hendrickson be traded? | 46.9% | +44.9 |
| Will Kayvon Thibodeaux be traded? | 45.5% | 0.0 |
| Will George Pickens be traded? | 15.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Alvin Kamara be traded? | 10.1% | +0.4 |
| Will Jalen Carter be traded? | 9.7% | +0.5 |
| Will Brian Thomas Jr. be traded? | 4.8% | +0.1 |
| Will D.K. Metcalf be traded? | 1.6% | — |
| Will Travis Etienne be traded? | 1.4% | — |
| Will Alec Pierce be traded? | 0.9% | — |
| Will Kyler Murray be traded? | 0.8% | — |
| Will Trent Williams be traded? | 0.8% | — |
| Will De'Von Achane be traded? | 0.8% | — |
| Will Breece Hall be traded? | 0.4% | — |
| Will Mike Evans be traded? | 0.1% | — |
Greenard stands out as the near-certain headline, with AJ Brown also priced in similar territory. The remaining players range from tightly balanced to long-shot chances.
Context
The probability of a Jonathan Greenard trade currently stands at 100.0%. This market will settle to 'Yes' if Greenard is traded by July 22, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies on official NFL information, though a consensus of credible reporting may be used if necessary. Any trade finalized after the deadline will not count. The resolution date Jul 22, 2026 is the key calendar point. The market will move ahead of any official NFL announcements or reports from reliable insiders indicating a completed deal. No other events are built into the contract's terms.
FAQ
How is a 'trade' defined for this market?
A trade means the player's contractual rights are transferred from one NFL team to another before the deadline. The transaction must be recognized by the league or confirmed by credible reporting.
When exactly does the market resolve?
The market resolves after July 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It will close earlier if an official trade is confirmed before then.
What if a trade is reported but never finalized?
The market will resolve based on official NFL information or a consensus of credible reporting. If a reported deal falls through before the deadline, it likely would not trigger a 'Yes'.
Are conditional or draft-day trades included?
Yes, any player trade that meets the criteria—including trades during the draft—will count as long as it is completed by the deadline.
Can the market resolve early?
If Greenard is traded and confirmed before the deadline, the market will resolve to 'Yes' at that point, rather than waiting for July 2026.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice