Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026? Odds & Probability

The current market-implied probability of a Michigan visit stands at 100.0%, placing it in near-certain territory. To resolve to 'Yes', Trump must physically enter Michigan's terrestrial territory between January 1 and December 31, 2026, by 11:59 PM ET. Overflights or airspace transits do not constitute a visit. The primary resolution sources are official U.S. government information and statements from Trump or his verified social media accounts. If those are unavailable, the market falls back on a consensus of credible reporting to determine whether a visit occurred. The resolution deadline is Jan 2, 2027. Any confirmed entry before that date settles the market to Yes; absent such an event, it settles to No. The rules contain no intermediate deadlines or triggers. Uncertainty could resurface if a reported visit lacks confirmation from the designated sources or if conflicting accounts emerge close to the deadline.