Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 92.0% to 100.0% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Republican senator Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola advance in Alaska Senate primary — The Guardian
Will Tom Begich advance in Alaska's governor primary?
Markets give Tom Begich a 100.0% chance of advancing from Alaska's non-partisan gubernatorial primary, putting him near-certain to claim one of four spots in the general election.
56.4%-11.5 pts 24h
Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
Updated · Volume $317.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Bernadette Wilson advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Dave Bronson advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Tom Begich advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 56.4% | -11.5 |
| Will Click Bishop advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 27.6% | -8.2 |
| Will Adam Crum advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 1.9% | +0.3 |
| Will Bill Walker advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 1.8% | +0.4 |
| Will Shelley Hughes advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 1.7% | +1.3 |
| Will Bruce Walden advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Edna DeVries advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 0.5% | +0.2 |
| Will Hank Kroll advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 0.4% | -0.1 |
| Will James Parkin advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 0.4% | -0.1 |
| Will Lesil McGuire advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 0.4% | -0.1 |
| Will Destry J. Payne Sr. advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Matt Heilala advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 0.4% | -0.1 |
| Will Jessica Faircloth advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 0.3% | -0.1 |
| Will Nancy Dahlstrom advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 0.3% | -0.1 |
| Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 0.2% | -0.1 |
| Will Gregg Brelsford advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Tom Begich is near-certain to advance, but Bernadette Wilson and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins are each favored to make the top four, Click Bishop and Dave Bronson are close to a coin flip, Bill Walker holds a substantial minority chance, and Treg Taylor is an outside bet; the remaining candidates are long shots.
Context
Aug 19, 2026
Probability rose from 82.0% to 100.0% — a 18.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: What to watch in the Alaska and Wyoming primary elections — Al Jazeera
Tom Begich's chance of advancing sits at 100.0%, having traded between 1.2% and 68.9% over the observed period. The line has barely wavered, consistent with a near-certain outcome. The market settles to "Yes" if Begich finishes among the top four vote-getters in the non-partisan primary, as certified by the State of Alaska Division of Elections. If the primary is not held, all contracts resolve to "No". When results are clear, consensus credible reporting may determine the outcome; any ambiguity triggers a final check against official tallies. The primary is scheduled for Aug 18, 2026. A cancellation would immediately drop all candidates' probabilities to zero. A shift in polling that puts Begich outside the top four could move the number, but at current levels, such a swing seems remote.
FAQ
How does Alaska's non-partisan primary work?
All candidates appear on a single primary ballot. The top four finishers advance to the general election.
What if the primary is canceled?
If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, all "advance" contracts resolve to "No".
How is the result determined?
The market first looks to a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the official tally from the Alaska Division of Elections settles it.
Could a candidate who finishes fifth still advance?
Only the top four advance. A fifth-place finish means the contract does not pay out.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice