Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce Wedding: Guest Attendance Odds

These contracts form part of a broader market on celebrity guest attendance at the Taylor Swift–Travis Kelce wedding. Each contract corresponds to a named individual and resolves to “Yes” if that person physically attends the ceremony or reception, as confirmed by photographic evidence, video, or official statements from the hosts, the attendee, or their legal or social media representatives. An invitation or virtual presence does not count. The headline figure for Gracie Abrams sits at 100.0%, placing her among six figures that prediction markets treat as near-certain to attend. Jack Antonoff (100.0%), Patrick Mahomes (100.0%), Sabrina Carpenter (100.0%), Brittany Mahomes (100.0%), and Selena Gomez (100.0%) all cluster in the same band. These probabilities reflect a consensus that Swift’s inner circle — her producer, tourmates, and longtime friends — will be present. A second tier, marked as strongly favored, includes the Haim sisters and producer Max Martin. Danielle Haim (91.4%), Este Haim (90.5%), Alana Haim (90.3%), and Max Martin (88.5%) all trade at strong but slightly lower odds. The market still expects them to attend, but leaves slightly more room for doubt than it does for the top group. At the opposite end, Phoebe Bridgers (0.1%) and Blake Lively (0.1%) are priced as remote tail outcomes. Bridgers, despite past collaboration with Swift, appears to be seen as outside the wedding’s likely orbit. Lively’s presence is similarly discounted. Trading volume across the market stands at $1.2M. These figures were last updated 10 min ago. Should no wedding occur by Dec 31, 2026, every contract resolves to “No”.