Who will be in the Burnham cabinet?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give a 100.0% chance that Angela Rayner would serve in a cabinet led by Andy Burnham, reflecting a high degree of confidence in the Labour deputy leader’s future role.
Will James Murray be in the Burnham cabinet?
Updated · Volume $187.1K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Louise Haigh be in the Burnham cabinet? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Wes Streeting be in the Burnham cabinet? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Shabana Mahmood be in the Burnham cabinet? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Lisa Nandy be in the Burnham cabinet? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Heidi Alexander be in the Burnham cabinet? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Jonathan Reynolds be in the Burnham cabinet? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Alan Campbell be in the Burnham cabinet? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Bridget Phillipson be in the Burnham cabinet? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Pat McFadden be in the Burnham cabinet? | 100.0% | — |
| Will John Healey be in the Burnham cabinet? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Ed Miliband be in the Burnham cabinet? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Angela Rayner be in the Burnham cabinet? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Yvette Cooper be in the Burnham cabinet? | 100.0% | — |
| Will James Murray be in the Burnham cabinet? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Jess Phillips be in the Burnham cabinet? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Patrick Vallance be in the Burnham cabinet? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Catherine West be in the Burnham cabinet? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Gary Stevenson be in the Burnham cabinet? | 0.0% | — |
| Will David Lammy be in the Burnham cabinet? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Darren Jones be in the Burnham cabinet? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Jo Stevens be in the Burnham cabinet? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Peter Kyle be in the Burnham cabinet? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Dan Jarvis be in the Burnham cabinet? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Hilary Benn be in the Burnham cabinet? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Liz Kendall be in the Burnham cabinet? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Ian Murray be in the Burnham cabinet? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Steve Reed be in the Burnham cabinet? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Keir Starmer be in the Burnham cabinet? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Jacqui Smith be in the Burnham cabinet? | 0.0% | — |
The headline outcome is priced as near-certain, with other potential appointees similarly expected.
Context
Pricing for Angela Rayner’s inclusion currently sits at 100.0%. The market resolves based on official UK Government announcements or a consensus of credible reporting. To count, an individual must be appointed or reappointed as a full cabinet minister within seven days of Andy Burnham officially becoming Prime Minister. Interim or caretaker roles do not qualify, and ordinary ministerial posts—even those that attend cabinet—are excluded. If Burnham is not appointed PM by December 31, 2026, all contracts resolve to “No”. The main factors that could shift the price are formal deadlines and resolution mechanics. The market has a cutoff of Dec 31, 2026 for Burnham’s appointment. After any such appointment, a seven-day window opens for confirmations. The primary resolution source is official information from the UK Government; otherwise, consistent reporting from credible outlets will be used.
FAQ
What counts as a cabinet minister for this market?
The individual must hold a cabinet minister position as defined by the UK Government. Ordinary ministers who attend cabinet but are not designated full cabinet members do not qualify.
How does the resolution deadline work?
Once Andy Burnham becomes Prime Minister, there is a seven-day window (ending at 11:59 PM UTC on the seventh day) for appointments to be confirmed. Appointments after that window do not count.
What if Andy Burnham never becomes PM?
If Burnham is not appointed Prime Minister by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC, all contracts in this market resolve to “No”.
What sources determine the outcome?
Resolution relies primarily on official UK Government announcements. If those are ambiguous or unavailable, a consensus of credible media reporting will be used.
Do interim or caretaker positions count?
No, only permanent cabinet appointments qualify. Interim or caretaker roles are explicitly excluded.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice