Aug 11, 2026
Probability rose from 72.5% to 84.5% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
MN-02 Democratic Primary Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02 at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $120.5K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Kaela Berg be the Democratic nominee for MN-02? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Matt Klein be the Democratic nominee for MN-02? | 0.1% | — |
| Will another candidate be the Democratic nominee for MN-02? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Aug 10, 2026
Probability rose from 64.5% to 75.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 9, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 76.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 8, 2026
Probability rose from 76.5% to 81.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Women in Maine may choose the victor in this year's Senate race — NPR News
Aug 6, 2026
Probability rose from 62.5% to 73.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Left-wing political outsider wins Democratic Senate primary in Michigan — BBC News
Show earlier updates
Aug 5, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 77.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: El-Sayed, Stevens face off in Michigan Democratic Senate primary — Al Jazeera
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice