Oct 14, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 82.8% — a 3.2-point move over the past day.
UFC Middleweight Champion 2026: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026 at 89.8%.
89.8%+0.7 pts 24h
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $977.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 89.8% | +0.7 |
| Will Nassourdine Imavov be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 2.5% | -0.2 |
| Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 1.1% | -0.1 |
| Will Joe Pyfer be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Jared Cannonier be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Reinier de Ridder be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Dricus Du Plessis be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Caio Borralho be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Robert Whittaker be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Anthony Hernandez be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Israel Adesanya be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Brendan Allen be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter D be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter C be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter G be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another fighter be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter B be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter F be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter E be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 99.6% of the total probability.
Context
Oct 13, 2026
Probability rose from 79.0% to 81.0% — a 2.1-point move over the past day.
Oct 10, 2026
Probability fell from 85.4% to 73.8% — a 11.6-point move over the past day.
Oct 9, 2026
Probability rose from 77.1% to 85.4% — a 8.3-point move over the past day.
Oct 8, 2026
Probability fell from 93.8% to 80.3% — a 13.4-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Oct 4, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 93.3% — a 33.9-point move over the past day.
Oct 4, 2026
Probability rose from 59.6% to 68.2% — a 8.6-point move over the past day.
Sep 22, 2026
Probability rose from 59.0% to 63.1% — a 4.1-point move over the past day.
Sep 21, 2026
Probability fell from 60.2% to 58.8% — a 1.4-point move over the past day.
Sep 20, 2026
Probability rose from 55.9% to 63.4% — a 7.6-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 19 tracked outcomes and $977.8K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026, is priced at 89.8%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice