Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 61.5% to 59.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
UFC Middleweight Champion 2026: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026 at 59.4%.
59.4%+0.6 pts 24h
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $918.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 59.4% | +0.6 |
| Will Nassourdine Imavov be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 23.1% | -0.1 |
| Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 14.5% | +0.5 |
| Will Dricus Du Plessis be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 3.1% | -1.7 |
| Will Anthony Hernandez be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Israel Adesanya be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Jared Cannonier be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Caio Borralho be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Robert Whittaker be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Brendan Allen be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Joe Pyfer be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Reinier de Ridder be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter E be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter B be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter F be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter C be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter G be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter D be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another fighter be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 99.3% of the total probability.
Context
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 58.8% — a 1.2-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 61.4% to 59.0% — a 2.4-point move over the past day.
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 59.3% to 63.5% — a 4.3-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability rose from 51.9% to 61.3% — a 9.4-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 20, 2026
Probability fell from 60.4% to 50.8% — a 9.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability rose from 47.3% to 58.9% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 47.0% to 57.8% — a 10.7-point move over the past day.
Aug 16, 2026
Probability fell from 58.8% to 43.9% — a 14.9-point move over the past day.
Aug 10, 2026
Probability fell from 62.8% to 58.5% — a 4.3-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 19 tracked outcomes and $918.2K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026, is priced at 59.4%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice