Aug 13, 2026
Probability rose from 20.0% to 100.0% — a 80.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Trump says White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt to leave post — BBC News
Who Will Leave Trump Administration Before 2027?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027 at 32.6%.
32.6%+0.6 pts 24h
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Updated · Volume $1.4M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 32.6% | +0.6 |
| Will Dan Scavino leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 29.1% | +0.2 |
| Will Markwayne Mullin leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 29.0% | +7.5 |
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 24.5% | -0.5 |
| Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 24.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 23.5% | +1.5 |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 22.0% | +0.5 |
| Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 21.9% | +0.1 |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 21.0% | +5.5 |
| Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 21.0% | +1.0 |
| Will Tom Homan leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 21.0% | +0.5 |
| Will Russell Vought leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 17.0% | 0.0 |
| Will John Ratcliffe leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 13.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 13.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 8.5% | +0.5 |
| Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 8.5% | 0.0 |
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 21 tracked outcomes and $1.4M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027, is priced at 32.6%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice